The 2024 IACP Research Symposium featured a fascinating presentation on optimizing police patrols in crime hot spots. The presentation revisited the influential “Koper Curve” strategy first introduced in 1995 by Dr. Christopher Koper of George Mason University. The session highlighted advancements in understanding the relationship between patrol time, deterrence, and crime prevention, providing actionable insights for law enforcement agencies seeking evidence-based strategies to maximize their resources.
The original Koper Curve hypothesis suggested that police patrols of 10-15 minutes in high-crime micro-locations (hot spots) create a “residual deterrence effect,” meaning a reduced likelihood of crime occurring shortly after police presence. Dr. Koper’s 1995 study hypothesized that patrol effectiveness diminishes after 15 minutes, advocating for short, consistent patrols spread across multiple hot spots. The Koper Curve principle has since become an important pillar of patrol management.
Reinforcing the Koper Curve Findings
From January 2022 through June 2024, SoundThinking used the Records Management System (RMS) data from ten policing agencies. The data included crime incident reports and patrol session information. The information sources varied from Dr. Koper’s original research, which focused on public data and field observations.
- Data Sources: SoundThinking’s recent data analysis, presented at the symposium, used records management systems (RMS) data. The data sources include crime incident reports and patrol session data from 10 SoundThinking customer police agencies, covering 44,848 crime events and 152,188 patrol sessions between January 2022 and June 2024.
- Methodology: The methodology used is survival analysis, which is most commonly used when modeling time-to-event data sets. This strategy evaluated how patrol duration impacts the time to the next crime event, accounting for some city-specific differences.
- Key Findings: The data analysis confirmed that deterrence is most effective when patrols last 11-15 minutes, with diminishing returns observed after 15 minutes. The optimal patrol duration was slightly refined, with maximum risk reduction occurring at 11-12 minutes, closely aligning with the original findings.
These results reinforce the Koper Curve’s guidelines through RMS data instead of observational data, potentially offering a more conservative approach with the data analysis that yielded statistically similar results.
SoundThinking’s ResourceRouter
SoundThinking’s ResourceRouter, an innovative tool designed to operationalize the Koper Curve strategy, supported the study. ResourceRouter creates geographic areas that need a 15-minute patrol for agencies. These patrol ‘boxes’ are created using data for the area from various historical sources to help allocate resources to areas at high risk for crime.
ResourceRouter integrates the historical and current data to space patrols in geographic hot spots and reminds patrol units to spend 15 minutes in each zone. Police agencies have the flexibility to adjust the time intervals between visits, lowering it to an hour between patrol visits from the 2-hour standard interval, as noted in Dr. Koper’s initial study. ResourceRouter leverages advanced analytics to enhance proactive patrolling and crime deterrence. Aligning patrol strategies with evidence-based guidelines helps agencies achieve maximum crime prevention with minimal resource expenditure.
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Implications for Patrol Management
SoundThinking’s analysis of the data replicates Dr. Koper’s hypothesis from the original study, validating the Koper Curve approach. Short, frequent patrols of 11-15 minutes in micro hot spots maximize deterrence, and patrol effectiveness diminishes beyond 15 minutes, highlighting the importance of patrol resource distribution as part of an evidence-based crime reduction plan.
This research highlights the importance of integrating data-driven tools like ResourceRouter into patrol planning. By focusing on optimal patrol durations and intervals, agencies can deter crime more effectively while optimizing resource allocation, reinforcing their commitment to community safety. SoundThinking remains committed to evidence-based solutions, using data to refine crime prevention strategies and empower law enforcement agencies. The results presented at the IACP Symposium reaffirm the value of the Koper Curve strategy as a cornerstone of hot spot policing, which is used effectively in the ResourceRouter patrol management solution.
Contact us to Learn More about How ResourceRouter Optimizes Patrol Time in Crime Hot Spots