Situation
For decades, the City of Baltimore had been afflicted with a high homicide rate, spiking 62% in 2015 and not dropping below 300 homicides per year for eight consecutive years. Amid growing community outrage that came to a boiling point following the death of Freddie Gray, and following a subsequent consent decree, the city was desperately seeking a new path to set public safety on track.
Results
Baltimore’s dramatic decrease in homicides in 2024 can likely be attributed to several factors, including stronger prosecutions, policing, and prevention. “You have to have a lot of things working at the same time” to produce such a decline, said Daniel Webster, a violence prevention expert at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
One driving factor was the launch of the Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS) in 2022, a three-pronged approach to crime prevention launched by the Mayor’s Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement (MONSE) in partnership with BPD and the State’s Attorney’s Office. Additionally, the 2023 election of Baltimore City State’s Attorney Ivan Bates led to a focus on tougher prosecution of handgun offenses. On the community side, GVRS has played an important role in reducing gun violence, with more than 200 people enrolled in “intensive life-coaching services and wrap-around supports,” and just 12 have recidivated.
40%
25%
22%
Strong policing is another critical factor contributing to public safety. When asked if he thought a “tough on guns” strategy was the primary driver for reduced homicide rates, John Cox, a criminal defense attorney who previously worked in the Baltimore State’s Attorney’s Office, said, “I think it’s probably more the police department being more proactive out there, trying to find the guns.” Gun seizures have increased by 22% since 2019. One of the major tools in the Baltimore Police Department’s toolbox? ShotSpotter’s acoustic gunshot detection system, which enables the BPD to respond to a higher level of gunfire incidents, improving response times and rates of evidence collection.
When you focus on the individuals who are most likely to be the victims or perpetrators of violence…then you can have the desired impact.